Unrest in the Middle East: Innocent or Coerced?

Across the EU and much of America, countless individuals are cheering the protesters for their success in toppling governments in Tunisia and Egypt--and  all the while some other people are also pleased. Though unlike the happily blissful western denizens, these figures are all smiles because they understand the exact consequences which will come from the change of regimes in the region better than the average American or European will likely ever be enlightened enough to discover. And while the masses are celebrating, they are scheming, for the revolutions follow their train of thoughts and planning with more preciseness than they had previously believed. These joyful notables are Bashir al-Assad of Syria, Mohammed ElBaradei of Egypt, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, and Hassan Nasrallah of Lebanon.

(Photo courtesy of Long Live Jacob! blog)

What do these men have in common other than geographic proximity? They all command anti-Western views and are influential in their countries, making them the perfect alliance to surround and crush the State of Israel with their coordinated assaults on moderate regimes throughout the Middle East.

In the loud results of the revolutions few have been ready to point out the key pattern of successful--and failed revolutions across the area while some still rage on. We hear chants of democracy and triumphant glee, yet the final reports seem to ignore the singular truth of it all: extremist leaders in the region are holding strong with an almost prepared resistance, while the dormant governments of Egypt and Tunisia easily fell to the shouting rebels. In the latter nation's unrest, President Ben Ali's dominance collapsed within a matter of days, yet his North African brother Qadafi has held strong in Libya through a determined radical Islamic policy and a brutal crackdown on protesters not seen in more moderate governments.

When Hosni Mubarak stepped down in February to quell protests, many felt this would lead to the peaceful collapse of other governments, yet neighboring Iran seems to defy this view. Before opposing activists could muster a force and demonstrate, the Iranian authorities launched a systematic suppressant strategy that curbed the growing flames of opposition to their power. So despite the common mindset of freedom in the Middle East, the radicals are coming out on top while the moderates fall.


With Syria in the anti-Western camp and Lebanon now controlled by Hezbollah, the State of Israel is progressively being surrounded by a powerful alliance in the molding of Gamal Nasser's Pan-Arabianism during the 20th Century. Only this time Egypt will have a military trained by the United States and Iran will not play the role of the moderate empire as it did under the Shah's leadership in the past.

It is understandable that people desire to embrace changes in age-old systems of power, yet each movement must be complemented by either a new centrist force or the toppling of a dictatorial regime. The truth of the current protests is that they threaten to realign the Middle East into a supremely anti-Western bloc, spelling considerable trouble for American and European interests in the near future. Understanding this threat means responding to it, and America must do so by helping to preserve the present moderates who hold power and seeking to topple those with views verging into the extremities.



Andrew Rimmer

National Alliance Vice President for Communications

The Beginning of a Revolution

Recent reports have included notes of a deadly "sniper virus" known as the Stuxnet has already began tampering with Iranian system controls, affecting what is estimated to be at more than sixty thousand computer units in the Tehran. Alongside this, several nuclear scientists have slowly been disappearing, with many blaming Mossad and the Israelis for both occurrences. Intentions aside, there are few reasons to doubt the validity of this claim--nor to condemn its reality. Iran's internal struggle with theocracy may just be coming to an end, leaving the world with a far better future.

Considering the number of strongly pro-western students who reside within the country's borders, it is unsurprising that non-militant activities to cripple the government of Iran are resulting in far more effective methods of deterring the radical power than a directed military assault against its position on the globe. In this manner freedom may very well take hold of the political reins even as not a single shot--or at least few, are fired.

Among the Iranian youth, the desire for freedom is evident even to the least insightful. After a dramatic Green Path of Hope movement in the capital city, hundreds of thousands in the nation joined hands to stand against the oppression of their president and decried his zealous desire to gain hold of nuclear power. Furthermore, the population levels are truly stunning, with over 70% of the population under the age of twenty-five, a clear warning of how beneficial wisdom-driven western influence could become if guided properly.

American foreign attitudes have perhaps too often devolved into a broad view of the Middle East in which all Muslims in the region are grouped into a large pro-terroristic mob with little sense or appreciation of civility. While this is only true in pockets of the general area, it is almost entirely inaccurate when applied to the realities of the state of Iran. Being predominantly Persian, the people have a very different view than their heavily Arabic neighbors; westernized attitudes melded with Islam to forge a more peaceful assessment of what should be done to curb violence in the global district.

Therein lies the terrible reality for the Ayatollah and his presidential stooge. Without an ability to further their radicalized concepts unto the rebellious youth of the country, the co-viceroys will be no match for the internal revolution just waiting to spring forth. Just as the brutal and iron-fisted Shah was no match for the organized clerics, the Ayatollah's waning grasp over the people will collapse as young Persians overthrow and reject his principles.

The battle is not yet won, but maintaining a solid foreign policy which seeks to systematically dismantle the nation without excessive force will allow the international world to watch as Iran's government disassembles itself and is replaced by true democracy.



Ayla Samadi

National Alliance Vice President for Domestic Affairs

Saad Hariri: A Model Leader

Reuters has just released a report that Saad Hariri will stand once again to become Prime Minister of Lebanon for a second term--and by God he should receive it. While it bears noting that the young leader has not been perfect in his own ways or pursuits of weapons for the nation, the man is the only thing keeping Lebanon from descending into a helpless chaos which is both anti-western and furiously against the existence of Israel.

The State of Israel is not entirely blameless for parts of the conflict both in Gaza and on the West Bank, yet allowing a force as irrational as Hezbollah to coalesce in the north is asking being a glutton for pain and tormenting strife. Lebanon's Christian population made the surprise move of endorsing much of the Hezbollah attempt at seizing power due to claimed disagreements between their camp and Hariri's on the issue of a military tribunal to convict the assassins of his father, who was slain in 2005.

In a brave move, the Sunni Muslim swatted Hezbollah in the face and went forward with the prosecution, a rightful action considering their mostly evident crimes against the state, but now he remains desperate for survival as the paramilitary organization may enter government to succeed him.

Despite a weak electoral showing two years past, Hariri's Future Movement Party is striving for the key to stability by introducing westernized principles to balance the zealous fundamentalism of the Shiite Hezbollah. Removing him from power will only jar Lebanon's historically stable position out of line for a ridiculous notion such that criminals need not be brought to justice. The man's movement has stood for moderation and a reasonable approach to foreign policy in the past, both gold items which must not be thrown away for the sake of passions rising up among the people.

In many ways, the Middle East needs more leaders like Hariri rather than a swift means of throwing them out of power. While western-friendly rulers like the Sha were systematically brutal, Hariri represents a hopeful future in which capitalist ideals can mix with Middle Eastern religion without causing civil unrest. Adding more men like the Georgetown-educated prime minister may become key to the future, and Lebanon seems like an ideal place to start with a political system in which Muslims of both sects--and Christians, cooperate together for the good of the nation.

Lebanon cannot afford the dangers of a Hezbollah supported coalition, and neither can the rest of the Middle East. Destabilizing a neutral and multicultural power will only serve as a means of making the journey towards successful negotiations absolutely narrow and difficult to travel in the future.



Michael Veramendi

National Alliance Vice President for Foreign Issues